An Optimization Method for Investment and Maintenance Planning of Power Plants under Uncertain Environments

Keiichi HANDA  Shigeru MATSUMOTO  Masashi NAKAMOTO  Naoshi UCHIHIRA  

IEICE TRANSACTIONS on Fundamentals of Electronics, Communications and Computer Sciences   Vol.E88-A   No.6   pp.1481-1486
Publication Date: 2005/06/01
Online ISSN: 
DOI: 10.1093/ietfec/e88-a.6.1481
Print ISSN: 0916-8508
Type of Manuscript: Special Section PAPER (Special Section on Papers Selected from 2004 International Technical Conference on Circuits/Systems, Computers and Communications (ITC-CSCC 2004))
investment,  maintenance,  power plant,  decision tree,  

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Investment planning for power plants involves making a long-term plan covering various facility investments, such as the construction of a new power plant or the replacement of an old plant with a new one, under uncertain environments. In this paper, we propose an optimization method for such a planning problem. Our method is based on decision tree analysis, in which uncertain environments are described as scenarios. The maintenance of existing plants is also taken into account by introducing the option of large-scale repair in addition to replacement. In order to avoid combinatorial explosion of failure event scenarios of plants, we introduce the concept of failure risk cost which contributes to simplification of the decision tree and reduction of the calculation time.