A Statistical Estimation Method of Optimal Software Release Timing Applying Auto-Regressive Models

Tadashi DOHI  Hiromichi MORISHITA  Shunji OSAKI  

IEICE TRANSACTIONS on Fundamentals of Electronics, Communications and Computer Sciences   Vol.E84-A   No.1   pp.331-338
Publication Date: 2001/01/01
Online ISSN: 
Print ISSN: 0916-8508
Type of Manuscript: PAPER
Category: Reliability, Maintainability and Safety Analysis
software reliability,  optimal release time,  auto-regressive models,  Bayesian estimation,  statistical optimization,  

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This paper proposes a statistical method to estimate the optimal software release time which minimizes the expected total software cost incurred in both testing and operation phases. It is shown that the underlying cost minimization problem can be reduced to a graphical one. This implies that the software release problem under consideration is essentially equivalent to a time series forecasting for the software fault-occurrence time data. In order to predict the future fault-occurrence time, we apply three extraordinary auto-regressive models by Singpurwalla and Soyer (1985) as the prediction devices as well as the well-known AR and ARIMA models. Numerical examples are devoted to illustrate the predictive performance for the proposed method. We compare it with the classical exponential software reliability growth model based on the non-homogeneous Poisson process, using actual software fault-occurrence time data.