Enhancing Software Project Simulator toward Risk Prediction with Cost Estimation Capability

Osamu MIZUNO  Daisuke SHIMODA  Tohru KIKUNO  Yasunari TAKAGI  

IEICE TRANSACTIONS on Fundamentals of Electronics, Communications and Computer Sciences   Vol.E84-A   No.11   pp.2812-2821
Publication Date: 2001/11/01
Online ISSN: 
Print ISSN: 0916-8508
Type of Manuscript: INVITED PAPER (Special Section on Concurrent Systems Technology)
software development project,  simulator,  risk factors,  cost estimation,  

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This paper presents an enhancement of a software project simulator to perform risk prediction with cost estimation capability. So far, we have developed a software project simulator to simulate software development projects. In this simulator, a development process was described using Petri net model, and it was applied to some actual project data in a certain company successfully. On the other hand, we have also presented a risk predicting system to find "risky" projects by statistical analysis on risk questionnaire for project managers. In this approach, only the probability to be risky was calculated for a project. Thus, the managers in the company wanted to know a concrete proof why a software project becomes risky. In this paper, to present the proof that a software project becomes risky, we try to enhance the previous project simulator so that the simulator can deal with risk factors. To consider the risk factors, we modify the previous simulator so that both the fluctuation of skill level and the deadline pressure can be represented by the parameters in the simulator. By using a case study, we confirm that the enhanced simulator can estimate the development cost under some typical risks. As a result, we can expect that the simulator shows how much the development cost of a risky project exceeds an estimate.