Simplified Formula for Estimating the Macroscopic Telephone Demand

Hisao OIKAWA  Takao YAMAZAKI  Hidetoshi KIMURA  

IEICE TRANSACTIONS on Communications   Vol.E79-B   No.3   pp.392-398
Publication Date: 1996/03/25
Online ISSN: 
Print ISSN: 0916-8516
Type of Manuscript: PAPER
Category: Communication Networks and Services
macroscopic demand estimation,  formulation,  telephone,  GDP,  long-term planning,  

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Estimating the macroscopic demand for telephones is essential to long-term planning construction of telecommunication networks facilities. Although there are several useful forecast equations, they need some types and/or vast amounts of data that are sometimes unavailable, especially in developing countries. This paper presents a sophisticated telephone demand estimation technique that is based on the demands of residential and business users. It uses several parameters to estimate the increase in telephone demand. A simplified equation is also presented that is a function of only one parameter: normalized gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. This simplified equation is shown to be useful by using data for more than ten countries.